When I first saw the Aho Offer sheet from Montreal in 2019, I was elated. Not only was the AAV of the deal quite comparable to what his true value should have been. The only way Montreal was attempting to force Carolina to not accept was through the wild signing bonus structure of the deal. It took little thought for Carolina to accept the deal. Fast forward two years and this might feel like a complete 180 in terms of rational. No signing bonus (minus the $20 joke for Aho Tom Dundon threw in) and a completely skewed AAV in terms of actual, present-day value. This might be one of the most "bonker" moves I've ever seen and I honestly have zero idea how it'll unfold in the coming hours or days. Below are a few thoughts I have on it:
1. Marc Bergevin is crazy for not giving in a bit and signing him to a higher than present day value AAV. To date, Kotkaniemi hasn't show much in terms of being able to cement the 2nd line center position down reliably for 82 games. But with only 3 weeks to training camp and Kotkaniemi projected to hold down that spot, coupled with the fact the Marc Bergevin has repeatedly said that he is untouchable as far as trades go and how he wants to build around the young core (Caufield, Romanov, Suzuki and Kotkaniemi), its utterly baffling that he decided to attempt to play hard ball with him. Why not throw an extra $500k or an extra year just to show good faith to a personally valuable part of your current and future team?
2. Utterly insane that, with Kotkaniemi being part of the current team’s success and future, they have been completely unsupportive of him. Scratching one of your teams leading goal scorers in the Stanley Cup Final? Continuing to publicly state that Kotkaniemi might not be ready for the 2nd line center? Honestly, why would you publicly do this to a young player who is supposed to be your present and future?
3. Per some of the advanced data (below) on Kotkaniemi, he is unlikely to become a 1st line center and only a 50%, at best, chance of becoming an average 2nd line center. Personally, I would attribute this entirely to him sporadic deployment and uneven growth curve since joining Montreal the last few seasons. While he might not ever be worth it, a late 1st round pick and a 3rd round pick in 2022 are woefully insufficient as far as value goes
4. Carolina might have made the biggest mistake of the offseason and I surprisingly am not talking about Tony DeAngelo, Dougie Hamilton, or Alex Nedeljkovic. Signing Kotkaniemi to a $6.1 million dollar contract when the lowest possible dollar amount, he will be paid next year is $5.1 million, assuming he gets qualified, is questionable at best. Giving away a 1st and 3rd round pick for that option is baffling. Clearly Carolina believes in his potential but was a crazy risk to take, a risk Montreal might to for significantly better compensation.
5. Clearly Kotkaniemi is upset with the way this offseason has unfolded. When he was still 19 years old, being demoted to the AHL, Kotkaniemi was full of hope and had a good attitude. He had no desire to leave Montreal. Not only did he sign this offer sheet, which good for him, he would have been a fool not too) but he agreed to sign it with the $20 bonus in there. There is no way that Carolina added that other than to piss off Habs fans. The fact that Kotkaniemi signed it is telling that he either didn't care or was showing his frustration with the process.
It’s the most no-win situation since the Kobayashi Maru and I'm not joking. Ruins one teams cap sheet and the value going back just isn't enough. The best case for Carolina is that Montreal matches and the best case for Montreal is that thing just didn't happen. In all seriousness though, I'd resign Kotkaniemi just because of the amount of hope in his potential I have versus the value of the 1st and 3rd round pick coming back. It also helps that this "young core" Bergevin talks about is all roughly the same age, so they can come into their own together. I guess we must wait and see how this all plays out.
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