With the season on an indefinite pause due to the coronavirus, teams have never been in a more uncharted territory. The projected salary cap towards the end of January was near $88 million dollars, up $6.5 from this year’s number. With an estimated loss of over a billion dollars league-wide, that number has plummeted to unknown depths. The league is attempting to not lower it past it current, but with the league losing money every day this pandemic continues, the uncertainty grows.
In light of the horrific post coronavirus landscape, the free agency market has taken a complete 180. Teams that were right up against the salary cap, a good 33% of the league, were planning to have the space to resign everyone on their team and add key depth signing. Other teams with a bit more space were gearing up to swing big for several key free agent stars in the market. Montreal is in quite a unique situation, being a team that would like to contend for the playoffs as soon as possible and have an abundance of salary cap space to do it. According to the website CapFriendly, Montreal has the fifth most space at this year’s regular-season conclusion, which would only increase by the time offseason arrived.
To further complicate the constraint around league around their pocketbooks are compliance buyouts. In previous Collective Bargaining Agreements where the salary cap was readjusted, the league had issued “compliance buyouts”. Compliance Buyouts are a way for teams to buy out the rest of a player’s contract in order to rid themselves of said player to either save money, a roster space, or make an attempt to restructure their team to be more competitive. What makes these compliance buyouts special is that the penalty that usually is attached to the contract would not appear on the books for the salary cap. Many teams could potentially save the salary cap space in order to restructure their payroll and keep the necessary core players.
It so happens that if Montreal used a buyout, it would almost surely be for Karl Alzners contract, which could save them a total of almost $20 million dollars before free agency even begins. Couple this with several free agents leaving or taking significantly smaller deals, Montreal could end up with much more. After factoring in the signing of Max Domi and Victor Mete, Montreal will be ready for the offseason. They have several needs in their roster, such as left side defense and a competent backup goalie, that need to be signed in order for Montreal to have any chance at becoming a perennial contender.
Goaltending
Arguably the biggest need in the entire organization is goaltending. With one of the NHL best goalies in Carey Price (even though the team in front of him hasn’t been nearly as competent as they could or should be) and Cayden Primeau already looking like the future star of the franchise, this might seem confusing. The problem is that between these two, there is no buffer. Primeau might be the goalie of the future yet needs at least one more season in the American League before making the full jump into the NHL. This creates a need for a fill-in behind Carey Price. Montreal has been looking for a solid backup goalie option to play between 25-30 games a season, have a winning average, and help an already weak defensive team make the playoffs.
Two seasons ago, Niemi was brought back on a one-year deal after being claimed off waivers midway through the season to replace the struggling Al Montoya. Niemi played well in limited appearances, earning a new contract. The following season went off the rails quickly, with Niemi losing his job to another season of Carey Price being overworked. Once they missed after getting 96 points, they made it an organizational focus to sign a decent goalie. They then signed Keith Kinklad. This proved to be another Niemi esque mistake, where Kinklad lasted only 6 games and 1 win before being sent to Laval in favor of Charlie Lindgren. Price was then tasked with carrying the team, faltering in November and early January before the season abruptly ended mercifully. This season, giving Price the opportunity to shine in every game he plays, is at the organization’s forefront. With many goalies such as Brayden Holtby available for the pickings, Montreal will have to make the right choice come July 1st (likely later because of this virus). Below are the top three candidates who should be signed as Price’s backup and why:
Mike Smith:
38 yrs old
(19-12-1)
GGA: 2.95
SV%: .902
Serving as a 1A/1B goalie alongside Mikko Koskinen on a decent Edmonton team has vaulted Smith into consideration for one of the better options in free agency. While his numbers aren’t as great as either Halak’s or Khudobin’s, he has had his work cut out for him by playing on a team that doesn’t seem to value skill or depth on their blue line other than Nurse. He played in a considerable amount of games, and with a lighter workload behind Price, his numbers would improve. Finally, his ability to play the puck better than almost any other goalie in the league, which would surely help drive puck possession and offense for a Montreal team that preforms considerably better when sticking to that game plan.
Jaroslav Halák:
35 yrs old
(18-6-3)
GGA: 2.39
SV%: .919
Flashback to 2010 when the Montreal Canadians played in arguably one of the most memorable first-round victories I’ve personally ever seen. I’m sure Halák remembers as he was in net, backstopping the Canadiens to their Game 7 victory. After bouncing around the league for the last several years, Halák has established himself as one of the premier true back up goalies in the league. His familiarity with Carey Price stands out as one of the biggest reasons reuniting the former duo. Unfortunately, considering his age and recent resume, he potentially could want a multiyear deal, which has been something Montreal seems almost unwilling to do.
Anton Khudobin:
33 yrs old
(16-8-4)
GGA: 2.22
SV%: .930
Out of all these candidates, Khudobin might prove to be the most interesting. Posting stellar numbers in Dallas the last two years, he has proven himself to be one of the NHL’s best solid 1B/backup goalies in the league. He has posted considerably consistent numbers alongside goalies such as Ben Bishop and Tuukka Rask. This constancy is what makes me believe he would be the ideal first choice for the Canadiens in the free agency market. He has played behind some unusually high ranked team defense in Boston and Dallas, which might have boosted his more recent numbers. Still only 33 yrs old, his age isn’t yet a risk factor or deterrent for signing. Montreal has the money to be able to afford him but once again, the term might become the biggest obstacle.
While this positional need likely doesn’t get resolved until free agency opens up, Montreal should attempt to sign as best a backup goalie that money can buy. Since they seem to not be able to attract any quality free agents in recent years, all three might decide to sign elsewhere. Several more options of lesser quality such as Aaron Dell, Cam Talbot, and Thomas Griess. If all else fails, maybe Begiven could clone Carey Price for a season or two until Primeau is ready.
Defense
After Montreal’s glaring need for a competent NHL caliber backup goalie, needs become a bit muddled. Since Andre Markov left the team, the left side of the defense has been a glaring hole on the roster. Mete has done a decent job considering is age/experience, yet he has not developed enough. While Chariot has exceeded expectations, their defensive core isn’t among the most skilled or imposing. What makes this tricky is once Romanov signs his entry level contract, they will have 4 left side defensemen on the roster. If a player can get traded or reassigned to the minors, here are two players they should take a serious look at to improve their team.
Erik Gustafsson (LD)
28 yrs old
G: 6
A: 23
The first defenseman that really jumps off the page is Gustafsson. Being drafted by Edmonton in 2012, it took him several years to come to North America with the Chicago Blackhawks. After a few more seasons, he cemented himself as a solid puck-moving defenseman. He had a phenomenal year last year putting up a career-high 60 points in 79 games. While this year was almost half the point output, Gustafsson is a significant upgrade on a team that has had one of the worst specialty teams in the league, several years running. With more responsibility and ice time, Gustafsson could blossom into becoming one of the better powerplay quarterbacks in the league. Being 28 years old, a 3-4 year deal with a significant raise and promise of ice time could entice him to bring his talent to Montreal.
Brendan Dillon (LD)
29 yrs old
G: 1
A: 13
If Montreal felt that the combo of Mete’s potential, Weber, and Petry was enough offensive dynamite on defense, the best stay at home option Brendan Dillon. At 6’4 and 225, Dillon imposes his will every shift, letting opposing forward know where he wants them to go with an active stick and presence. He has adapted well to the faster NHL compared to some others such as Alzner, yet still produces very little offensively. For Montreal to sign him, there would have to be a plan in place to play him in the top four in order to validate the hefty contract he would command. With him in the top four, Mete would get pushed out and one of Romanov or Mete would be likely in the press box or in Laval most nights. He has the talent to vastly improve the team's defense, but would it be worth it at the risk of not playing the future?
With both these defensemen, money would have to be thrown at them in order to get them to sign. With a team that has a fairly decently stocked right side, I bet that the decision's weight actually lies more with the term of either contract as Bergevin wouldn’t want to create a roster jam in a few years with many of the kids (Kotkaniemi, Suzuki, Fleury, Mete..) needing contract extension and roster spots to push for. Considering this, it will be interesting to see If Bergevin can make a move that improves Montreal while also creating flexibility in the future. If he can’t sign a premier NHL free agent defenseman, they shouldn’t sign one at all. The left sign consisting of Kulak, Mete, Romanov, and Chariot are competent enough to provide the same caliber defending that any mid-level or depth option free agent could provide already.
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