With the Tampa Bay Lightning winning the Stanley Cup, every team is shifting its gaze to the 2020-2021 season. Regardless of when it will start or how the season will happen, roster formation is already taking place. Arguably, the most important day for setting up one's team for the perennial Stanley Cup success is draft day. Even though some Montreal fans were dismayed with winning the qualification round—moving from 9th to 16th—this year's draft boards are the most volatile they have been in years. This is on account of the 2019-2020 season being only 75% complete. With Montreal drafting 16th overall, I believe they have an opportunity to draft an extremely quality player, one that will slip down from their current projected rankings. Much like last year, with Cole Caufield falling to 15th overall due to his size, many players have various concerns with their game, scaring some teams away. In addition, some teams do not draft the best player available but rather for organizational needs, which allows higher quality players to fall. This year specifically, there is an absurd amount of forwards projected to go in the first round. Some teams, however, need defense projects in order to balance their team out. I fully expect the likes of Guhle and Schinder will diminish earlier than their talent suggests, leaving quality options for the Canadiens. With Montreal in dire need for any skill in their roster, below are the best players potentially available for the 16th overall pick.
*The likes of Jack Quinn and Anton Lundell are not included in this list because, baring something actually insane (very on-brand for 2020), they will be selected long before 16th comes around.
Yaroslav Askarov, G, SKA St. Petersburg (KHL/VHL)
Age: 18 | Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 176 | Catches: R
Games Played: 18 | GGA: 2.45 | SVS%: .920
Carey Price is the best goalie in the league, with the highest salary for the next six years. Montreal also has Cayden Primeau in the minors, growing to become the heir to Price. Thus, one questions why on Earth would I suggest Montreal draft Askarov? Simple. He is going to be one of the most dynamite goalkeepers in the league, hopefully, by 2024. Only being 17 years old and a legit KHL starting goalie, he earns player of the week honors in his first week of play. At 16th overall, the value of drafting him at this spot is off the charts. I highly doubt he drops to this spot; Carolina and Nashville seem as close to needing a franchise goalie and picking him. Yet, since it is extremely difficult to project where he will be drafted, this is an absolute must draft pick if he falls all the way to 16th. Askarov projects to be an elite goalie in the NHL, and arguably the best goalie drafted since Carey Price. On top of his value and potential, with Price in net, Askarov has time to develop fully in Russia. This would aid in maximizing his skill and value for this pick. From a team that seems to swing for the fences (Caufield and Romanov), this would be another home run pick for Montreal.
Seth Jarvis, RW, Portland Winterhawks (WHL)
Age: 18 | Ht: 5-10 | Wt: 172 | Shot: R
Games Played: 58 | Goals: 42 | Assists: 56
Montreal's biggest concern organizationally for next season and for the future is high-end scoring and Jarvis provides that in spades, and would be the best case senior for Montreal out of the remaining forwards. Jarvis had a terrific year in Portland where he became the OHL's second-leading scorer. An extremely skilled and quick player, with skills translating well into the NHL at the top of a lineup. He is a hard-working, intelligent, and creative. The pace at which he plays the game helps him create separation and opportunity for himself and his team. The only downside is his small stature, so winning the board battles is out of the question. Similar to Caufield, teams might take Askarov, defensemen Guhle or Schneider, or just a bigger forward, allowing Jarvis to drop to 16th for Montreal. For a team with little skilled forwards, Jarvis bumps up the potential for immense creativity and goal-scoring, while being a 200-foot player you can count on in all situations.
Dawson Mercer, RW, Chicoutimi Saguenéens (QMJHL)
Age: 18 | Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 179 | Shot: R
Games Played: 42 | Goals: 24 | Assists: 26
With all this said, Mercer, is statistically most likely chosen by the Canadiens as of now. With a beautiful blend of skill and intelligence, he is a top 200-foot player on the ice. Thanks to his extremely soft hands, he has a consistent shot and even smoother playmaking. Like Jarvis, Mercer's hockey IQ is elite, enabling him to create offense where others could not. This IQ, plus his effort, is the main reason why he can soar higher and not be available for the Canadiens at 16th. Coaches love hardworking players more than anything else and Mercer is the epitome. Many scouts have compared his game to Patrice Bergeron, a huge praise for the quality of his game. Nevertheless, even the best players have some drawbacks. In a league currently shifting to faster skating, his speed is average. Mercer might not be able to reach his ceiling. Once he gets up to speed, he can stay up in most plays, yet his explosiveness and first three strides are noticeably slow. As a player projecting as a top 6 C/RW, Mercer has all the skills to overcome this skating defensive and become one of the best players in the draft. Being line-mates with Hendrix Lapierre, the pairing could be unstoppable this year, as we have seen already in preseason action.
Rodion Amirov, LW, Salavat Ufa (KHL/VHL)
Age: 19 | Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 168 | Shot: L
Games Played: 21 | Goals: 0 | Assists: 2
Out of all the forwards, Amirov might be the hardest to get a sense of where teams place him on their draft boards. Amirov is a highly-skilled winger who shows great skill last year against his peers in U20 play. While he did not get the same looks with the men's club, he is foreseen to excel this season due to increased playing time, due to several teams losing players to COVID in the KHL. With this odd opportunity, Amriov wants the puck at all times and will hunt it down; coupling this with his ability to utilize his edges and protect the puck, he has all the tools to transform into a creative top 6 winger. Since there is no transfer agreement between the KHL and the NHL, teams may be scared to draft him, as he is under contract with Salavat Ufa of the KHL with no guarantee he would cross the Pacific. Another mark against his game is his light weight, occasionally not to have the power to get to the inside of the ice. Over the next few years, before the NHL, Amriov will have to put more hours into off-ice training as he continues his development.
Unfortunately, it is probable all four players are drafted before Montreal walks up to the *virtual* podium. In the worst case in which none of them are left, Marvik Bourque, Hendrix Laperrie, and Connor Zary slot in as the next best options. Montreal should pounce at these next three options rather than drafting two of the projected defenseman available at this spot, being Kaden Guhle or Brandon Schneider. Both these players have debatable offensive ceilings, questionable defensive zone coverage, and mobility that might never allow them to reach the NHL. At the 20-25 pick range, both these defenseman players would be a good, smart pick. Yet, at this point in the draft, the needs of the organization and what would potentially be left on the draft board, paints a clear picture that Montreal should select a forward to complement their growing skilled collection of forwards including Kotkaniemi, Suzuki, and Caufield.
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